Project on the Economics of Climate Adaptation and Forests
(ECAF)
College of Agricultural Sciences |
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How can forest landowners adapt their management to climate change, and what are the resulting impacts of this adaptation and conservation activities on the provision of forest ecosystem services and the economic value of forests? How can conservation agencies design policy to efficiently provide ecosystem services from forests when the climate is changing? This project examines these research questions by focusing on the development of empirical evidence using micro-econometric tools, microeconomic theory, spatial simulation, and integrated economic-ecological analysis. |
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Figure 1 depicts our conceptual framework for how climate change interacts with forest management. Climate directly affects forest landowner management choices by altering the profitability of management choices through timber yields (#1 in Fig. 1). Forest landowners choose the management actions, such as thinning, harvest intensity, harvest time and which species to regenerate to maximize the value of their land. Ultimately, these management decisions affect the disturbance risk that their stand faces (A). Climate affects natural disturbance risk directly by altering fire frequency and pest habitat (2). The state of the forest landscape arises from the combination of landowner management choices and natural disturbance (B), and is directly affected by climate's influence on naturally growing vegetation (3). The state of the forest landscape affects climate through carbon sequestration (3), and may lead to market adjustments through timber supply shifts (C) and policy adjustments through government demands regarding ecosystem service provision (C). Market and policy adjustments may also be driven directly by climate change through shifts in demand for different timber products and through carbon price adjustments (4). Finally, timber and carbon prices affect forest management decisions directly by altering the profitability associated with harvest times and which species to regenerate upon harvest (D). |
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Project Collaborators
and Graduate Students Lead principal investigator: David J. Lewis,
Professor of Applied Economics at Oregon State University Collaborators Yukiko Hashida, Post-Doctoral Researcher,
Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies (former OSU grad student) Brent Sohngen, Professor
in Department of AED Economics, Ohio State University Jeff
Kline, Research Forester, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research
Station John
Withey, Faculty Member, Masters of Environmental Studies Program,
Evergreen State College Chris Mihiar, Post-Doctoral Researcher,
Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University (former OSU grad
student) Graduate Students Cassie Finer, PhD student in Department of
Applied Economics, Oregon State University Kelsey Johnson, PhD student in Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University |
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Track #1: Empirical analysis of climate adaptation
behavior by forest landowners |
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Principal
research question:
How do forest landowners adapt their management behavior to their current
climate, and what does this suggest about how they might modify their
behavior to climate change? |
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Coastal Douglas-Fir Forest, Marys Peak, Oregon; Photo: David Lewis |
Objective 1: Develop U.S. west coast and
national econometric models of forest management, and use the models to test
for the effects of climate on management choices by landowners. We examine
how variation in key climate variables affects the probability of i)
harvesting, ii) replanting certain forest types after harvest, and iii)
natural disturbance? Objective 2: Use the econometric model as
the basis for a landscape simulation to depict the effects of climate change
on the state of U.S. forests and the resulting composition of tree species. Objective 3: Examine the effects of
multiple carbon price scenarios on the adaptive behavior of forest landowners
and the resulting forested landscape. We examine whether climate mitigation
policy encourages more or less adaptation towards new forest types in
different regions of the U.S. Objective 4: Develop an econometric model of
broad land-use changes across agriculture, forests, urban, and rangeland uses
under climate change. We examine how climate change influences broad land-use
changes and the overall acreage of U.S. forests. |
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Track #2: Climate change adaptation, conservation,
and forest ecosystem services |
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Principal
research question:
How does landowner adaptation to climate change and climate policy affect the
forest landscape and ecosystem services, and how can conservation policy be
designed in the face of climate change? |
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Moose in Balsam-Fir Forest of
Northern Maine; Photo: David Lewis |
Objective 1: How can the optimal provision
of ecosystem services be implemented under asymmetric
information, spatial dependences and climate change induced range shifts in
wildlife? Objective 2: Integrate the landscape
simulation of climate adaptation with ecological models of wildlife to depict
the impacts of climate change and climate policy on forest wildlife habitat.
We examine which species will gain habitat and which species will lose
habitat under alternative climate change and climate policy scenarios. Objective 3: Use the integrated landscape
simulation of climate change to examine how climate change and climate policy
scenarios will affect fire prevalence and carbon sequestration through
adaptation behavior amongst landowners. |
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Track #3: Ricardian analysis of the effects of
climate on the economic value of forestland |
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Principal
research question: How
does the current climate affect the economic value of forests, and how might
climate change alter the economic value of forestland? |
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Douglas-fir timberland, western
Oregon; Photo: David Lewis |
Objective 1: Construct county-level
measures of average net returns to an acre of forestland, and use econometric
analysis to conduct a Ricardian analysis of how climate affects the value of
forest. Key questions answered under this objective are how different
adaptation strategies (rotation length, species planting) affect the economic
value of adaptation. Objective 2: Construct parcel-level measures
of the value of forestland for the State of Oregon, and use econometric
analysis to conduct a Ricardian analysis of how climate is capitalized into
land prices. This analysis uses real-market value and observed transactions
prices of forestland, and examines the price impact of disturbance risk and
the potential for aggregation bias when conducting Ricardian analysis with
aggregated forest returns data. |
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Sources of funding support |
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USDA Forest Service Pacific
Northwest Research Station USDA Forest Service Southern
Research Station
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USDA National Institute for
Food and Agriculture
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Last updated: 9/25/2018 |
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