Project on the Economics of Climate Adaptation and Forests (ECAF)

Track #1: Empirical analysis of climate adaptation behavior by forest landowners

Principal research question: How do forest landowners adapt their management behavior to their current climate, and what does this suggest about how they might modify their behavior to climate change?

Relationship between climate and the current stock of forest types for the US west coast

-This figure shows the basic relationship between tree species and climate for California, Oregon and Washington using data from over 6,000 non-federal timber plots from FIA

-Hardwoods are found in warmer climates while Fir/Spruce are found in colder climates

-Hemlock/Sitka Spruce are found in the wettest climates while Ponderosa Pine and Other Softwood are found in the driest climates

Objective 1: Develop U.S. west coast and national econometric models of forest management, and use the models to test for the effects of climate on management choices by landowners. We examine how variation in key climate variables affects the probability of i) harvesting, ii) replanting certain forest types after harvest, and iii) natural disturbance?

Structure of Econometric Model for US West Coast

-Discrete choice econometric analysis using a nested logit framework

-Landowners choose intensity of harvest decision

-Conditional on the harvest decision, landowners choose the species to regenerate (if cut) or a natural disturbance event may occur (if not cut)

-Key drivers of forest management include: timber prices, expected timber volume growth, species-specific rents, site productivity, elevation, climate

Econometric Results for US West Coast

Partial effects of $10/acre rent increase on probability of replanting Douglas-fir

-Rents per acre - a measure of profitability - are key drivers of forest management decisions in the econometric model

-Rents vary across regions and across forest types, and are closely linked to timber yield curves to the left.

-The econometric model scales regional average rents to downscaled climate measures.

-Econometric results (to the left) provide evidence that landowners will be less likely to replant Douglas-fir under the warmer future climates.

Objective 2: Use the econometric model as the basis for a landscape simulation to depict the effects of climate change on the state of U.S. forests and the resulting composition of tree species.

Schematic of landscape simulation

-The landscape simulation is driven by econometric estimates of forest management decisions - these generate rules for land-use decisions

-The simulated landscape depicts changes in the forest in 10-year tie steps, where forest growth is tracked through empirical yield curves

-Land-use decisions are updated as climate conditions and/or policy changes

Simulation Results: Simulated effects of climate change by 2100: Change in Douglas-fir's total shares (left) and hardwoods (right) resulting from climate change

-Relative to a baseline without climate change, simulations suggest that climate change reduces the share of private forests in Douglas-fir

-Relative to a baseline without climate change, simulations suggest that climate change increases the share of private forests in hardwoods.

- Landowners adapt to climate change by gradually shifting out of their current dominant species choice of Douglas-fir to species more suitable for the future climate, notably hardwoods and ponderosa pine.

Objective 3: Examine the effects of multiple carbon price scenarios on the adaptive behavior of forest landowners and the resulting forested landscape. We examine whether climate mitigation policy encourages more or less adaptation towards new forest types in different regions of the U.S.

Carbon yield curves: Rents for highest site productivity class in Western Oregon with current timber prices.

-A carbon price generates rental payments to landowners.

-Under a carbon price, land is “rented” for timber production and for carbon sequestration.

-Timber rents and carbon rents vary across forest types.

Simulation results: Simulated combined impact of climate change and a carbon price on the share of private forests in Douglas-fir (left) and hardwoods (right)

-Relative to a baseline with climate change, a carbon price accelerates the adaptation away from Douglas-fir and towards hardwoods in the western portion of the Pacific Northwest.

- The carbon price rewards the climate-induced relative shift in productivity away from Douglas-fir to hardwoods.

Research Papers

Hashida, Y., and D.J. Lewis. 2018. The intersection between climate adaptation, mitigation, and natural resources: An empirical analysis of forest management. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (Forthcoming). (PDF version) (Supplementary appendix)

Sources of funding support

USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station

USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station

USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture

Last updated: 9/25/2018